Round of 16
Canada crest

Canada

0–3
Full Time
Morocco crest

Morocco

NRG Stadium · Houston· Ref: Michael Oliver, England

Win ProbabilityPre-match model

33%
Canada
16%
Draw
51%
Morocco
Model confidence:high

Model Inputs

  • Canada: 4pts, 3 played
  • Morocco: 7pts, 3 played
  • Canada form: WLWD
  • Morocco form: WWWD
  • H2H: 1 historical matches
  • Canada host nation advantage

Match Statistics

CanadaMorocco
0.86Expected Goals (xG)0.78
45%Possession55%
11 (3)Shots (on target)5 (4)
357 (76%)Passes (accuracy)472 (82%)
11Corners1
24Fouls14
4Yellow Cards4
1Saves3
0Tackles0

Analysis & Intelligence

Data CrunchJul 4

Canada 0–3 Morocco: xG Parity Masks Clinical Finishing

Morocco's Round of 16 victory over Canada defied expected goals data. Despite near-identical xG, clinical finishing and defensive lapses decided World Cup 2026.

530 words

Pre-MatchJul 2

Canada vs Morocco: Atlas Lions Favored in Houston Knockout

Canada faces Morocco in World Cup 2026 Round of 16. Morocco enters with 7pts and superior form, while Canada seeks redemption after mixed group stage results from Houston.

680 words