Round of 32
Portugal
2–1
Full Time
Croatia
BMO Field · Toronto· Ref: Espen Eskas, Norway
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
41%
Portugal
23%
Draw
36%
Croatia
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Portugal: 5pts, 3 played
- Croatia: 6pts, 3 played
- Portugal form: WDWD
- Croatia form: LWWL
- H2H: 9 historical matches
Match Statistics
PortugalCroatia
2.18Expected Goals (xG)1.34
61%Possession39%
15 (3)Shots (on target)13 (6)
584 (91%)Passes (accuracy)368 (85%)
9Corners5
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
5Saves2
0Tackles0
Analysis & Intelligence
Data CrunchJul 3
Portugal 2–1 Croatia: xG vindication in Toronto
Portugal's 2–1 victory over Croatia was statistically inevitable. Despite Croatia's shot volume, Portugal's 2.18 xG dominance sealed a deserved World Cup 2026 win.
531 words
Pre-MatchJun 30
Portugal vs Croatia: Knockout Desperation Meets Proven Experience
Portugal and Croatia clash in Toronto with contrasting tournament positions. Our model rates this Round of 32 fixture at 37-37, with form and venue factors crucial to World Cup 2026 progression.
659 words