Round of 32
Mexico crest

Mexico

2–0
Full Time
Ecuador crest

Ecuador

Estadio Banorte · Mexico City· Ref: S. Vincic

Win ProbabilityPre-match model

54%
Mexico
15%
Draw
31%
Ecuador
Model confidence:high

Model Inputs

  • Mexico: 9pts, 3 played
  • Ecuador: 4pts, 3 played
  • Mexico form: WWWW
  • Ecuador form: LWDL
  • H2H: 7 historical matches
  • Mexico host nation advantage

Match Statistics

MexicoEcuador
1.02Expected Goals (xG)0.73
43%Possession57%
15 (3)Shots (on target)7 (1)
319 (78%)Passes (accuracy)407 (84%)
3Corners8
10Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Saves1
0Tackles0

Analysis & Intelligence

Data CrunchJul 1

Mexico 2–0 Ecuador: Clinical Finishing Masks Tight Expected Goals Battle

Mexico's Round of 32 win over Ecuador was far tighter than the scoreline suggests. xG data reveals a competitive contest decided by conversion efficiency in World Cup 2026.

539 words

Pre-MatchJun 29

Mexico vs Ecuador: Unbeaten Host Eyes Knockout Progression

Mexico's perfect group stage record faces Ecuador's resurgence in Round of 32. World Cup 2026 analysis of tactics, venue, and win probability.

693 words