Round of 32
South Africa crest

South Africa

0–1
Full Time
Canada crest

Canada

SoFi Stadium · Inglewood· Ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal

Win ProbabilityPre-match model

33%
South Africa
19%
Draw
48%
Canada
Model confidence:high

Model Inputs

  • South Africa: 4pts, 3 played
  • Canada: 4pts, 3 played
  • South Africa form: LWDL
  • Canada form: LWLWD
  • H2H: 1 historical matches
  • Canada host nation advantage

Match Statistics

South AfricaCanada
0.13Expected Goals (xG)1.32
58%Possession42%
6 (1)Shots (on target)12 (7)
550 (85%)Passes (accuracy)380 (78%)
1Corners4
10Fouls16
0Yellow Cards2
5Saves1
0Tackles0

Analysis & Intelligence

Data CrunchJun 28

Canada 1–0 South Africa: xG dominance converts to narrow win

Canada's expected goals superiority (1.32–0.13) finally translates to three points. Data analysis of a decisive Round of 32 encounter at SoFi Stadium.

560 words

Pre-MatchJun 26

South Africa vs Canada: Knockout Football Demands Clinical Finishing

South Africa and Canada face off in World Cup 2026's Round of 32 with identical records. Our analysis examines form, tactics, and why the xG conversion rate will decide this match.

696 words