Group Stage - 1
Iraq
vs
10:00 PM UTC
Tuesday, June 16
Norway
Gillette Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
10%
Iraq
17%
Draw
73%
Norway
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 10% / 17% / 73%
- Iraq: 0pts, 0 played
- Norway: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Iraq
Market: 10%Model: 10%
Draw
Market: 17%Model: 17%
Norway
Market: 73%Model: 73%
Market efficiency: 94%6 sources · Updated 05:30 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Iraq | Draw | Norway |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| Pinnacle | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| FanDuel | 10% | 16% | 73% |
| Betfair | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| DraftKings | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| William Hill | 11% | 20% | 69% |
| Our Model | 10% | 17% | 73% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Norway
Market rates Norway 4% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.