Group Stage - 2
Netherlands
vs
05:00 PM UTC
Saturday, June 20
Sweden
NRG Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
44%
Netherlands
29%
Draw
27%
Sweden
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 44% / 29% / 27%
- Netherlands: 0pts, 0 played
- Sweden: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 2 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Netherlands
Market: 44%Model: 44%
Draw
Market: 29%Model: 29%
Sweden
Market: 27%Model: 27%
Market efficiency: 50%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Netherlands | Draw | Sweden |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Betfair | 32% | 34% | 34% |
| Our Model | 44% | 29% | 27% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Netherlands
Market rates Netherlands 12% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Sweden
Our model rates Sweden 7% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
Draw
Market rates Draw 5% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.