Group Stage - 1
Sweden crest

Sweden

5–1
Full Time
Tunisia crest

Tunisia

Estadio BBVA · Monterrey· Ref: Yael Falcon Perez, Argentina

Win ProbabilityPre-match model

57%
Sweden
13%
Draw
30%
Tunisia
Model confidence:high

Model Inputs

  • Sweden: 4pts, 3 played
  • Tunisia: 0pts, 3 played
  • Sweden form: LDLW
  • Tunisia form: LLL
  • H2H: 1 historical matches

Match Statistics

SwedenTunisia
1.33Expected Goals (xG)0.28
49%Possession51%
13 (7)Shots (on target)6 (2)
356 (78%)Passes (accuracy)371 (79%)
4Corners2
10Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Saves1
0Tackles0

Analysis & Intelligence

Data CrunchJun 15

Sweden 5–1 Tunisia: xG Tells a Story of Dominance, Not Fortune

Sweden's 5–1 victory over Tunisia was backed by superior expected goals (1.26 vs 0.20). Data analysis reveals a deserved win with one critical statistical outlier.

590 words

Pre-MatchJun 13

Sweden and Tunisia Open 2026 Campaign in Mexico

Sweden faces Tunisia in Group Stage opener at Estadio BBVA. Our model rates both sides at 37% win probability in World Cup 2026 matchup.

716 words