Group Stage - 1
Sweden
vs
02:00 AM UTC
Monday, June 15
Tunisia
Estadio BBVA · Monterrey
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
25%
Sweden
51%
Draw
24%
Tunisia
Model confidence:medium
Model Inputs
- Sweden: 0pts, 0 played
- Tunisia: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Sweden
Market: 49%Model: 25%
Draw
Market: 28%Model: 51%
Tunisia
Market: 23%Model: 25%
Market efficiency: 94%6 sources · Updated 04:38 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Sweden | Draw | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Betfair | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| BetMGM | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Pinnacle | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| William Hill | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| DraftKings | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Our Model | 25% | 51% | 25% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Sweden
Market rates Sweden 25% higher than our model
Largest divergence: BetMGM · Confidence: high
Draw
Our model rates Draw 25% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: William Hill · Confidence: high
Tunisia
Our model rates Tunisia 3% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.