Group Stage - 1
Canada
vs
07:00 PM UTC
Friday, June 12
Bosnia & Herzegovina
BMO Field ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
26%
Canada
50%
Draw
24%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Model confidence:medium
Model Inputs
- Canada: 0pts, 0 played
- Bosnia & Herzegovina: 0pts, 0 played
- Canada host nation advantage
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Canada
Market: 52%Model: 26%
Draw
Market: 25%Model: 50%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Market: 23%Model: 24%
Market efficiency: 94%6 sources · Updated 04:38 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Canada | Draw | Bosnia & Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Betfair | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| BetMGM | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Pinnacle | 53% | 25% | 23% |
| William Hill | 51% | 23% | 27% |
| DraftKings | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Our Model | 26% | 50% | 24% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Draw
Our model rates Draw 28% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: William Hill · Confidence: high
Canada
Market rates Canada 27% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Our model rates Bosnia & Herzegovina 3% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.