Group Stage - 3
Croatia
2–1
Full Time
Ghana
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia· Ref: Drew Fischer, Canada
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
50%
Croatia
17%
Draw
33%
Ghana
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Croatia: 6pts, 3 played
- Ghana: 4pts, 3 played
- Croatia form: LWWL
- Ghana form: LLDW
- H2H: 1 historical matches
Match Statistics
CroatiaGhana
0.42Expected Goals (xG)0.64
53%Possession47%
8 (4)Shots (on target)6 (1)
523 (91%)Passes (accuracy)455 (88%)
3Corners2
9Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Saves2
0Tackles0
Analysis & Intelligence
Data CrunchJun 27
Croatia 2–1 Ghana: When Efficiency Beats Expected Value
Croatia's 2–1 win over Ghana defied xG logic in Philadelphia. Data analysis of World Cup 2026 group stage upset and the gap between chances created and chances converted.
569 words
Pre-MatchJun 25
Croatia vs Ghana: Tactical Evolution Determines Group Stage Destiny
Croatia seeks redemption against Ghana in a pivotal World Cup 2026 group clash. Our analysis of form, tactics, and probability models reveals why this match remains genuinely open.
683 words