Group Stage - 3
South Africa crest

South Africa

1–0
Full Time
South Korea crest

South Korea

Estadio BBVA · Monterrey· Ref: Facundo Raul Tello Figueroa, Argentina

Win ProbabilityPre-match model

46%
South Africa
20%
Draw
34%
South Korea
Model confidence:high

Model Inputs

  • South Africa: 4pts, 3 played
  • South Korea: 3pts, 3 played
  • South Africa form: LWDL
  • South Korea form: LLW
  • H2H: 1 historical matches

Match Statistics

South AfricaSouth Korea
1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.90
32%Possession68%
13 (4)Shots (on target)8 (3)
340 (81%)Passes (accuracy)719 (89%)
4Corners6
7Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
2Saves3
0Tackles0

Analysis & Intelligence

Data CrunchJun 25

South Africa 1–0 South Korea: Clinical Finishing Trumps Dominance

South Africa's narrow win over South Korea defied xG parity in World Cup 2026 group stage. Possession mismatch tells the real story of Monterrey.

535 words

Pre-MatchJun 23

South Africa vs South Korea: Monterrey Decider

South Africa faces South Korea in Group Stage Round 3 at Estadio BBVA. Korea favored at 46% win probability. Analysis of tactical matchups and tournament implications for World Cup 2026.

659 words