Group Stage - 2
Panama
vs
11:00 PM UTC
Tuesday, June 23
Croatia
BMO Field ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
25%
Panama
28%
Draw
47%
Croatia
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 25% / 28% / 47%
- Panama: 0pts, 0 played
- Croatia: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Panama
Market: 25%Model: 25%
Draw
Market: 28%Model: 28%
Croatia
Market: 47%Model: 47%
Market efficiency: 53%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Panama | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Betfair | 37% | 37% | 26% |
| Our Model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Croatia
Market rates Croatia 21% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Panama
Our model rates Panama 12% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Draw
Our model rates Draw 8% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.