Group Stage - 2
Tunisia
vs
04:00 AM UTC
Sunday, June 21
Japan
Estadio BBVA · Monterrey
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
22%
Tunisia
27%
Draw
51%
Japan
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 22% / 27% / 51%
- Tunisia: 0pts, 0 played
- Japan: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 2 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Tunisia
Market: 22%Model: 22%
Draw
Market: 27%Model: 27%
Japan
Market: 51%Model: 51%
Market efficiency: 67%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Tunisia | Draw | Japan |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| Betfair | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Our Model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Tunisia
Our model rates Tunisia 4% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: low
Japan
Market rates Japan 3% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.