Group Stage - 2
Germany
vs
08:00 PM UTC
Saturday, June 20
Ivory Coast
BMO Field ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
47%
Germany
28%
Draw
25%
Ivory Coast
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 47% / 28% / 25%
- Germany: 0pts, 0 played
- Ivory Coast: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Germany
Market: 47%Model: 47%
Draw
Market: 28%Model: 28%
Ivory Coast
Market: 25%Model: 25%
Market efficiency: 50%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Germany | Draw | Ivory Coast |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Betfair | 32% | 34% | 34% |
| Our Model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Germany
Market rates Germany 15% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Ivory Coast
Market rates Ivory Coast 9% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: medium
Draw
Our model rates Draw 6% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.