Group Stage - 2
USA
vs
07:00 PM UTC
Friday, June 19
Australia
Lumen Field ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
51%
USA
20%
Draw
29%
Australia
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 51% / 20% / 29%
- USA: 0pts, 0 played
- Australia: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 1 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
USA
Market: 51%Model: 51%
Draw
Market: 20%Model: 20%
Australia
Market: 29%Model: 29%
Market efficiency: 77%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | USA | Draw | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Betfair | 41% | 16% | 43% |
| Our Model | 51% | 20% | 29% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Australia
Our model rates Australia 14% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
USA
Market rates USA 10% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Draw
Our model rates Draw 3% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.