Group Stage - 2
Mexico
vs
01:00 AM UTC
Friday, June 19
South Korea
Estadio Akron · Zapopan
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
41%
Mexico
31%
Draw
28%
South Korea
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 41% / 31% / 28%
- Mexico: 0pts, 0 played
- South Korea: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 3 historical matches
- Mexico host nation advantage
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Mexico
Market: 41%Model: 41%
Draw
Market: 31%Model: 31%
South Korea
Market: 28%Model: 28%
Market efficiency: 51%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Mexico | Draw | South Korea |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Betfair | 33% | 35% | 33% |
| Our Model | 41% | 31% | 28% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Mexico
Market rates Mexico 9% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
South Korea
Our model rates South Korea 5% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: low
Draw
Our model rates Draw 4% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.