Group Stage - 1
Iran
vs
01:00 AM UTC
Tuesday, June 16
New Zealand
SoFi Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
51%
Iran
28%
Draw
21%
New Zealand
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 51% / 28% / 22%
- Iran: 0pts, 0 played
- New Zealand: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis5 sources
Iran
Market: 51%Model: 51%
Draw
Market: 28%Model: 28%
New Zealand
Market: 22%Model: 22%
Market efficiency: 84%5 sources · Updated 05:30 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Iran | Draw | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 53% | 27% | 21% |
| FanDuel | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| William Hill | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Betfair | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| DraftKings | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Our Model | 51% | 28% | 22% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Iran
Our model rates Iran 16% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
New Zealand
Market rates New Zealand 10% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Draw
Market rates Draw 6% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.