Group Stage - 1
Ivory Coast
vs
11:00 PM UTC
Sunday, June 14
Ecuador
Lincoln Financial Field ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
25%
Ivory Coast
51%
Draw
24%
Ecuador
Model confidence:medium
Model Inputs
- Ivory Coast: 0pts, 0 played
- Ecuador: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Ivory Coast
Market: 29%Model: 25%
Draw
Market: 32%Model: 51%
Ecuador
Market: 40%Model: 25%
Market efficiency: 93%6 sources · Updated 04:38 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Ivory Coast | Draw | Ecuador |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| BetMGM | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Pinnacle | 27% | 34% | 39% |
| Betfair | 28% | 32% | 41% |
| William Hill | 31% | 30% | 38% |
| DraftKings | 28% | 33% | 40% |
| Our Model | 25% | 51% | 25% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Draw
Our model rates Draw 21% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: BetMGM · Confidence: high
Ecuador
Market rates Ecuador 16% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Ivory Coast
Market rates Ivory Coast 7% higher than our model
Largest divergence: William Hill · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.