Group Stage - 1
Mexico crest

Mexico

2–0
Full Time
South Africa crest

South Africa

Estadio Banorte · Mexico City· Ref: Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil

Win ProbabilityPre-match model

58%
Mexico
13%
Draw
29%
South Africa
Model confidence:high

Model Inputs

  • Mexico: 9pts, 3 played
  • South Africa: 4pts, 3 played
  • Mexico form: WWWW
  • South Africa form: LWDL
  • H2H: 2 historical matches
  • Mexico host nation advantage

Match Statistics

MexicoSouth Africa
1.46Expected Goals (xG)0.07
61%Possession39%
16 (4)Shots (on target)3 (2)
520 (90%)Passes (accuracy)334 (81%)
3Corners1
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards2
2Saves2
0Tackles0

Analysis & Intelligence

Data CrunchJun 11

Mexico 2–0 South Africa: Altitude Advantage Meets Expected Dominance

Mexico's 2–0 victory over South Africa was statistically inevitable. The xG gap (1.44–0.07) confirms deserved winners in World Cup 2026 Group Stage clash.

560 words

Pre-MatchJun 9

Mexico vs South Africa: Altitude Advantage in Group Stage Opener

Mexico hosts South Africa in World Cup 2026 group play at high-altitude Azteca Stadium. Our model favors South Africa slightly despite home advantage. Analysis of tactical setup and venue impact.

683 words